O'Leary's Contrarian Call: No December Fed Cut, But Bitcoin Unfazed

Mr. Wonderful vs. The Fed: Why He Says Bitcoin Won’t Budge (Even Without a Rate Cut)

The market is holding its breath for a December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. But one prominent investor isn’t buying it—and he says Bitcoin won’t either.

In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Kevin  Mr. Wonderful  O’Leary pushed back against the overwhelming market consensus, stating he simply doesn’t believe a cut is coming this month.

I don’t actually think the Fed's gonna cut in December, O’Leary stated plainly. But in a twist for crypto traders, who often view rate cuts as a green light for risk assets, he added: It’s not gonna make a difference to Bitcoin.

The Inflation Roadblock

So, what’s behind O’Leary’s skepticism? He points squarely to the Fed’s dual mandate: controlling inflation and maintaining full employment.

There’s a lot of inflation in the system, he noted, highlighting September's 3% annual inflation rate—the highest since January. The tariffs are starting to take hold and input costs… he added, suggesting persistent price pressures that could tie the Fed’s hands.

His stance stands in stark contrast to the current market frenzy. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning a 89.2% probability to a rate cut in December—a dramatic surge from just weeks ago.

Bitcoin: Finding Its  Level

Conventional wisdom suggests that without the expected rate cut—which would typically make bonds and savings less attractive—riskier assets like Bitcoin could suffer. However, O’Leary sees a different scenario unfolding.

He believes Bitcoin has essentially found a level for now. His prediction? The price will likely drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction.

I don’t see a lot of upside catalyst, he admitted, but crucially, he also doesn’t foresee a major downturn. This outlook comes even as Bitcoin has shed over 17% of its value in the past month, currently trading around $91,440.

A Rollercoaster of Expectations

The path to this near-certainty in the market has been anything but smooth, showcasing the extreme volatility in Fed expectations:

1- Early November: Odds for a December cut sat around 67%.

2- November 19: Probability plummeted to just 33%.

3- November 21: Odds nearly doubled to 69.4% following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.

4- Today: The market has priced it in as a near certainty at 89.2%.

This whipsaw action highlights how sensitive traders are to every word from Fed officials.

The Bottom Line

While the broader market hangs on the Fed’s every word, O’Leary is tuning out the noise for his Bitcoin strategy. His message is clear: he’s not positioning his investments around a December cut because he doesn’t believe it’s coming.

His conclusion offers a contrarian calm amidst the speculation: Whether the Fed cuts or not, Mr. Wonderful expects Bitcoin to stay the course—neither crashing nor soaring, but holding its ground. In a climate of intense speculation, that itself is a notable forecast.

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