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Crypto Sentiment Wavers Amid US Market Structure Bill Uncertainty

The crypto world has been riding a wave of optimism in recent weeks, but that momentum encountered turbulence as the market digested news surrounding a long-awaited U.S. Senate bill aimed at regulating digital assets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular sentiment gauge, dropped sharply from a level of “greed” to a neutral position, reflecting growing unease among investors.

This sudden shift highlights how quickly regulatory concerns can influence market psychology, especially as policymakers attempt to navigate the complex landscape of crypto oversight.

Fear & Greed Index Signals Investor Hesitation

On Thursday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached a multi-month peak, signaling widespread  greed  as Bitcoin surged to nearly $97,870. This level of optimism mirrored past market highs, yet it also echoed historical volatility, notably the crash of October 10 when $19 billion in liquidations shook the market. By Friday, the index had retreated by 12 points to a neutral score of 49, indicating a marked shift in investor sentiment.

Market analysts attribute this pullback to growing anxiety surrounding the Senate’s proposed market structure bill. While the legislation aims to delineate how U.S. regulators oversee digital assets, some crypto executives have voiced serious concerns, particularly around provisions that could further restrict stablecoin yields.

Regulatory Uncertainty Clouds Bitcoin’s Recent Gains

Despite Bitcoin’s impressive gains leading up to Thursday, sentiment among traders began to waver as executives debated the bill’s potential consequences. Santiment, a crypto sentiment analytics platform, noted that while the price movement appeared justified due to continued accumulation by smart money and retail selling, social media chatter reflected increasing doubt and caution.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, notably withdrew support for the legislation, describing it as potentially  materially worse than the current status quo.  His decision resonated across the industry, prompting concern among investors who feared that regulatory overreach could dampen innovation and market liquidity.

Senate Markups Delayed, Market Response Mixed

The backlash led the Senate Banking Committee to cancel its planned markup of the bill, citing the need for broader support before moving forward. Similarly, the Senate Agriculture Committee postponed its markup to late January, leaving the bill’s future uncertain.

While uncertainty often drives markets lower, some industry insiders see the delay as a positive development. Kyle Chasse, a crypto venture capitalist, described the postponements as  a bullish signal,  emphasizing that the market held strong despite initial fears of a sharp downturn.

Opportunities for Traders in Volatile Times

US Regulators Push for Unified Crypto Oversight Amid Growing Market Interest

In a landmark move signaling closer cooperation on digital assets, the heads of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appeared together at a joint event on Thursday, emphasizing the need for a coordinated approach to crypto regulation. This event marked a significant step toward clarifying oversight in a rapidly evolving market that has long been mired by fragmented rules and regulatory uncertainty.

CFTC Joins SEC’s Project Crypto

Michael Selig, the chair of the CFTC, announced that his agency would actively participate in the SEC’s ongoing initiative, Project Crypto, which was launched in July to provide regulatory clarity for digital assets. According to Selig, this partnership aims to create a clear taxonomy for crypto assets, define jurisdictional boundaries, and eliminate redundant compliance requirements that have long burdened the market.

Fragmented oversight imposes real economic costs, Selig explained.  It raises barriers to entry, reduces competition, increases compliance expenses, and encourages regulatory arbitrage rather than productive investment. Recognizing this, the CFTC intends to work closely with the SEC to align regulatory requirements across markets.

Selig emphasized that the goal is not to blur statutory boundaries but to reduce unnecessary duplication that does not enhance market integrity.

Harmonizing Crypto Rules for the Future

SEC Chair Paul Atkins echoed these sentiments, stating that the industry must move beyond  turf wars  of the past and embrace a new era of cooperation. The collaboration is also aligned with Congress’ ongoing work on legislation aimed at clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing the digital asset market.

The Senate Agriculture Committee recently voted along party lines to advance the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, a bill designed to establish a framework for digital asset market structure. Although the measure still requires coordination with the Senate Banking Committee before a full chamber vote, the legislation reflects the growing urgency for unified oversight.

Addressing Prediction Markets

Selig also addressed the regulatory challenges surrounding prediction markets, including political and sports-related event contracts. Since taking office in December, he directed the CFTC staff to withdraw a 2024 rule prohibiting such contracts and a 2025 advisory cautioning registrants due to ongoing litigation.

“For too long, the CFTC’s framework has been difficult to apply and has failed market participants,  Selig said.  I aim to establish clear standards for event contracts that provide certainty and clarity.

His remarks come as several U.S. states have moved to crack down on prediction market platforms, arguing that operators require gaming licenses to offer sports wagers. By clarifying the federal framework, the CFTC hopes to reduce regulatory confusion and protect market participants.

CFTC Leadership and Legislative Scrutiny

The question of CFTC leadership has been a hot topic amid the push for new digital asset regulations. The agency has been understaffed following multiple resignations in 2025, including acting Chair Caroline Pham, leaving the commission with only one Republican member.

During Thursday’s markup, Senator Amy Klobuchar proposed an amendment requiring the CFTC to be fully staffed with at least four commissioners before the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act could take effect. The amendment narrowly failed, highlighting the tension between lawmakers over the scope of regulatory authority.

As of now, the White House has not announced nominations to fill the remaining vacancies, leaving the CFTC in a delicate position as it navigates an increasingly complex crypto landscape.

Looking Ahead

The joint appearance of the CFTC and SEC chairs signals a more cooperative approach to digital asset regulation in the United States. By aligning standards, reducing duplication, and clarifying roles, regulators hope to support innovation while protecting investors and maintaining market integrity.

For crypto investors and companies, these developments could mean clearer rules, less regulatory uncertainty, and a more predictable environment for launching and managing digital asset projects. The era of fragmented oversight may soon give way to a more unified and structured regulatory framework, potentially shaping the future of the U.S. crypto market for years to come.

Crypto Markets Slide as Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake Global Confidence

Global cryptocurrency markets came under renewed pressure as investors reacted sharply to fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, triggering a broader risk-off move across equities, bonds and digital assets. What initially looked like a routine correction has evolved into a deeper sell-off, fueled by rising bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty and growing fears of macroeconomic contagion.

Bitcoin and Ether both slid back toward recent lows as traders reassessed their exposure to high-risk assets. The sell-off coincided with turbulence in traditional markets, reinforcing the idea that crypto remains tightly linked to global financial sentiment rather than operating as a fully independent hedge.

Tariff Tensions Spill Into Crypto and Equities

Trump’s announcement of potential new tariffs, reportedly aimed at pressuring Denmark over Greenland-related geopolitical disputes, unsettled investors worldwide. European leaders responded with firm rhetoric, signaling resistance rather than compromise, which amplified fears of escalating trade and diplomatic friction.

As a result, global stock markets moved lower, with the S&P 500 posting one of its sharpest single-day declines this month. At the same time, investors rushed toward perceived safe havens, pushing gold prices to fresh all-time highs. Cryptocurrencies, often marketed as an alternative store of value, instead followed equities lower, highlighting their vulnerability during periods of systemic stress.

Bitcoin and Ether Lose Momentum as Risk Appetite Fades

Bitcoin retested levels not seen in over two weeks, slipping below the psychological $90,000 zone as selling pressure intensified. Ether mirrored the move, drifting toward the lower end of its recent trading range and struggling to reclaim bullish momentum.

The broader crypto market felt the impact even more severely. Total market capitalization fell sharply, erasing hundreds of billions of dollars in value within days and moving more than 30% below its October 2025 peak. This decline underscores how quickly sentiment can shift when macroeconomic uncertainty dominates investor decision-making.

Rising Bond Yields Send a Warning Signal

One of the most concerning developments for risk assets has been the rapid rise in government bond yields. US five-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in nearly six months, a move often associated with fears of inflation persistence, fiscal stress or looming recession risks.

Even more alarming was the surge in Japanese government bond yields, particularly at the long end of the curve. Japan’s 20-year yields reached record highs, sparking concerns that bond market volatility could spread globally. Analysts warned that higher yields increase borrowing costs and reduce liquidity, creating a hostile environment for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Ray Dalio Warns of a New Financial Conflict Era

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio added to market anxiety by warning that the world may be entering a new phase of global financial conflict. According to Dalio, escalating trade disputes could extend beyond tariffs into capital flows, currency exposure and investment restrictions.

He emphasized that declining confidence in traditional financial systems, particularly the US dollar, has historically led to unpredictable shifts in asset allocation. While this narrative might appear bullish for crypto in theory, current market behavior suggests investors are prioritizing liquidity and stability over alternative monetary systems.

Safe Havens Outperform as Crypto Struggles

While cryptocurrencies struggled, precious metals told a very different story. Silver emerged as one of the strongest-performing assets, surging dramatically over recent months and pushing its market capitalization well above that of the entire crypto sector. Gold’s continued rally further reinforced the preference for tangible safe havens during times of geopolitical and economic stress.

This divergence highlights a key challenge for crypto adoption: during acute market shocks, investors still gravitate toward traditional stores of value rather than digital alternatives.

Bitcoin’s Position Among Global Assets Comes Under Pressure

Despite the downturn, Bitcoin remains one of the world’s largest tradable assets by market capitalization. However, the gap between Bitcoin and major corporations is narrowing. Technology giants and energy companies are rapidly closing in, raising questions about Bitcoin’s long-term dominance during prolonged risk-off cycles.

Ether’s situation appears more fragile. Its market capitalization has slipped down the global rankings, overtaken by several major US corporations. This shift reflects not only price weakness but also growing competition for investor capital in a high-yield, high-interest-rate environment.

Japan’s Debt and Political Uncertainty Add Fuel to the Fire

Japan’s economic outlook has become another focal point for global investors. With public debt exceeding 200% of GDP and political uncertainty rising ahead of a potential snap election, markets are increasingly sensitive to policy credibility. Expectations of expanded stimulus measures have further pressured bond markets, intensifying global yield volatility.

Financial institutions warn that these developments could act as a catalyst for broader market instability, particularly if confidence in fiscal discipline erodes across other heavily indebted nations.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin and Ether?

Looking ahead, the short-term trajectory of crypto markets may hinge on diplomatic developments rather than blockchain fundamentals. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $95,000 level and Ether’s prospects of revisiting the $3,300 zone depend largely on whether geopolitical tensions ease and bond markets stabilize.

If negotiations between the US and European leaders fail to produce meaningful progress, risk assets could remain under pressure. Until clarity emerges, cryptocurrencies are likely to trade defensively, closely tracking macroeconomic signals rather than internal adoption metrics.

Crypto Slump Hits ARK ETFs in Q4 as Coinbase Emerges Top Detractor

The fourth quarter of 2025 proved challenging for the crypto market, and its ripple effects were felt strongly across several of Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The downturn highlighted just how intertwined these ETFs have become with the performance of digital assets, with Coinbase and Roblox emerging as the largest drags on returns.

ARK’s quarterly report, released Wednesday, revealed that weakness in crypto-linked equities, particularly Coinbase, was a central factor behind underperformance. Funds such as the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) all suffered noticeable setbacks due to declines in these holdings.

Coinbase: From Growth Potential to Performance Drag

Coinbase, once a poster child for crypto trading platforms, experienced a sharper decline than major cryptocurrencies during the quarter. Spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges fell nearly 9% quarter-over-quarter following the October $19 billion liquidation event, putting additional pressure on Coinbase’s shares. While Bitcoin and Ether posted losses of 22% and 28% respectively, Coinbase’s stock fell from $346 at the start of October to $226 by year-end, representing a nearly 35% drop.

ARK noted that the stock faced market headwinds despite hosting a product showcase aimed at demonstrating its long-term ambitions. Coinbase highlighted plans for on-chain equities, prediction markets, an AI-powered portfolio advisor, and a broader rollout of its Layer 2 Base app. Yet, even with these strategic initiatives, challenging market conditions overshadowed the company’s growth narrative, leaving it as the largest detractor in multiple ARK ETFs.

Roblox: Unexpected Challenges Weigh on ARK Funds

Following Coinbase, Roblox became the second-largest performance drag across ARK’s ETFs. This was despite the company reporting strong third-quarter results, including a 51% year-over-year growth in bookings. However, the outlook for 2026 raised concerns, as Roblox warned of declining operating margins due to increased spending on infrastructure and safety measures.

Complicating matters further, Roblox faced regulatory pressures internationally, including a ban in Russia that affected roughly 8% of its daily active users. These developments, combined with market volatility, contributed to the stock’s impact on ARK’s fund performance.

ARK’s Crypto Exposure and Key Holdings

ARK’s ETFs have grown increasingly sensitive to the performance of crypto-linked equities. Crypto exposure now accounts for roughly 13.7% of ARKW, 14.6% of ARKF, and 7.4% of ARKK. Beyond Coinbase and Roblox, ARK’s top crypto-linked holdings include Robinhood Markets, Circle Internet Group, Block, and direct Bitcoin exposure through the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. This exposure underscores the ETFs’ reliance on both crypto market dynamics and the broader performance of tech-driven platforms connected to digital assets.

Wall Street Sees Potential Rebound

Despite the recent downturn, some analysts on Wall Street are growing optimistic about Coinbase’s future prospects. Last week, Bank of America upgraded Coinbase from neutral to buy, emphasizing the company’s expanding role in moving financial activity on-chain and its transformation beyond a traditional trading platform into what the bank described as an “everything exchange.” Goldman Sachs has echoed this sentiment, initiating a buy rating and citing undervaluation in crypto-related stocks after the recent pullback. These upgrades suggest that the market may be positioning for a potential rebound as we move into early 2026.

Looking Ahead

As ARK’s ETFs navigate the ongoing volatility, investors are watching closely to gauge whether the current environment offers opportunities or signals further caution. The performance of crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and Roblox highlights the risks inherent in combining traditional ETF structures with the rapidly evolving crypto market. Yet, the recent upgrades by major financial institutions indicate that the long-term narrative for digital assets and connected platforms remains intact, suggesting that savvy investors may find strategic entry points amid the turbulence.

Ethereum’s Network Explosion Raises New Security Questions

Ethereum has recently witnessed an unprecedented surge in on-chain activity, with transaction counts and active addresses reaching record-breaking levels. At first glance, this spike appears to signal renewed adoption, rising user confidence, and growing interest across decentralized finance and Web3 applications. However, new research suggests the story behind these numbers may be far more concerning.

VanEck Sees Q1 2026 as a Turning Point Toward a Risk-On Market Environment

Global investment firm VanEck believes the first quarter of 2026 could mark a decisive shift in investor sentiment, transforming markets into a risk-on environment after years of uncertainty. According to the firm’s latest outlook, clearer fiscal policies, more predictable monetary direction, and stronger thematic visibility are restoring confidence across global markets.

In its Q1 2026 outlook, VanEck highlighted something investors have not experienced consistently in recent years: visibility. As markets enter the new year, uncertainty around government spending, interest rate policy, and long-term economic direction appears to be easing, creating fertile ground for risk assets to regain momentum.

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Market Volatility Returns as Global Tensions Shake Risk Assets

The crypto market entered a fragile phase at the start of the week, as renewed trade tensions between the United States and several European countries reignited fears of a global risk-off environment. This shift in sentiment has not only affected digital assets but also traditional markets, with traders turning cautious and reducing exposure to volatile instruments.

Bitcoin and major altcoins have given back a portion of their recent gains, while safe-haven assets such as gold and silver surged to new all-time highs. Despite the short-term pressure, long-term market participants remain optimistic, viewing the current pullback as a necessary reset rather than a structural breakdown.

Against this backdrop, let’s take a closer look at the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the US Dollar Index, and the top cryptocurrencies shaping the market narrative.

S&P 500 Faces Resistance as Bulls Defend Key Levels

The S&P 500 Index continues to struggle near the psychological 7,000 level, where selling pressure has intensified. While bears are clearly active at these highs, the index has not seen aggressive downside follow-through, suggesting that buyers are still present beneath the surface.

As long as prices remain above short-term moving averages, the broader uptrend remains intact. A deeper correction could emerge if sellers force a break below medium-term support, potentially opening the door to a sharper pullback. However, if buyers regain control and push decisively above 7,000, the index could accelerate toward higher historical targets, reinforcing risk appetite across global markets.

US Dollar Index Caught Between Buyers and Sellers

The US Dollar Index recently attempted to reclaim strength by moving above its key moving average, but upside momentum quickly faded as sellers stepped in. This hesitation reflects the broader uncertainty in macro markets, where investors are balancing geopolitical risks against expectations of future monetary policy.

If the dollar weakens again, it may remain trapped within a broad consolidation range for some time. On the other hand, a strong rebound would signal renewed confidence in the greenback, potentially adding pressure to both equities and cryptocurrencies in the short term.

Bitcoin Struggles Near Support as Traders Turn Defensive

Bitcoin remains under pressure as uncertainty dominates market psychology. The leading cryptocurrency has pulled back toward a crucial support zone that traders are closely monitoring. While selling pressure has been persistent, the structure still suggests consolidation rather than a full trend reversal.

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin is temporarily lagging behind gold, which has benefited from the risk-off environment. According to long-term network models, BTC and gold may ultimately move in the same direction, albeit on different timelines. A strong bounce from current levels could reignite momentum toward six-figure price targets, while a breakdown would likely keep Bitcoin range-bound for the coming weeks.

For traders seeking flexibility during volatile conditions, platforms like BYDFi offer advanced charting tools, multiple order types, and access to both spot and derivatives markets, making it easier to navigate uncertain price action.

Ethereum Waits for a Breakout as Indecision Persists

Ethereum continues to trade within a tightening range, reflecting growing indecision among market participants. Neither bulls nor bears have managed to assert dominance, resulting in compressed volatility that often precedes a major move.

A confirmed breakout to the upside could send Ether toward higher resistance zones and restore confidence across the altcoin market. Conversely, a breakdown below support would likely extend the consolidation phase, delaying any meaningful recovery. Until a clear direction emerges, traders remain cautious, favoring short-term strategies over long-term commitments.

XRP Loses Momentum as Bears Reassert Control

XRP has shown signs of renewed weakness after slipping below a critical technical level. This move has emboldened sellers, who are now attempting to push the price toward a well-defined support area.

If buyers manage to defend this zone, XRP could remain locked in its broader trading channel. However, a decisive breakdown would significantly increase downside risk, potentially triggering a sharper sell-off. A sustained move above descending resistance would be required to shift the outlook back in favor of the bulls.

BNB Tests Market Confidence After Failed Breakout

BNB has retreated after failing to hold above a key breakout level, signaling hesitation among buyers. While demand has appeared at lower prices, sellers continue to cap upside attempts.

A strong recovery above nearby resistance would revive bullish momentum and open the door to higher price targets. If selling pressure intensifies, however, BNB could revisit deeper support zones, testing the patience of longer-term holders.

Solana Enters Consolidation as Momentum Fades

Solana has cooled off after being rejected at a major resistance level, sliding back toward its mid-range support. The flattening of technical indicators suggests a period of sideways movement, as traders wait for a clearer signal.

A breakout above resistance could reignite interest and attract fresh capital, while a breakdown below support would expose Solana to a much deeper correction. Until then, range trading remains the dominant theme.

Dogecoin Clings to Support Amid Market Weakness

Dogecoin has found temporary relief at a key support level, where buyers have stepped in to absorb selling pressure. Despite this defense, upside progress remains limited by overhead resistance.

If buyers can reclaim key moving averages, DOGE may continue oscillating within its established range. Failure to hold support, however, would likely signal a continuation of the broader downtrend, increasing downside risk.

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