Related Questions

Key Takeaways:

• Historical data confirms that a 30% to 50% Bitcoin drawdown is a standard occurrence, even during the most aggressive bull markets.
• These corrections serve to flush out excessive leverage, resetting the market for sustainable long-term growth.
• In 2026, institutional ETF support may dampen the depth of these crashes, but volatility remains a core feature of the asset class.

Every crypto investor fears the charts turning red. However, a significant Bitcoin drawdown is not a sign of the apocalypse; it is usually just a pit stop. As we analyze the market structure in 2026, whispers of a major correction are circulating again.

Veterans of the 2017 and 2021 cycles know the pattern well. Price explodes upward, euphoria sets in, and then suddenly, the market sheds 50% of its value in weeks. Understanding why this happens—and why it might happen again—is the key to surviving the cycle without panic selling at the bottom.

Why Do 50% Drops Happen During Bull Runs?

It seems counterintuitive for an asset to crash while it is winning. The primary driver of a sharp Bitcoin drawdown is leverage. When traders get too greedy, they borrow money to bet on the price going up.

Eventually, the market runs out of new buyers. A small price dip triggers a chain reaction of liquidations. As leveraged "Long" positions are forced to sell, they drive the price down further, triggering more liquidations. This "flush" cleans out the gamblers, allowing spot buyers to re-accumulate at fair prices.

Is This Time Different Due to ETFs?

The popular narrative in 2026 is that "this time is different" because of Wall Street. The theory is that Spot ETFs provide a constant bid that prevents prices from falling too far.

While it is true that institutions hold stronger hands than retail traders, they are not immune to fear. A Bitcoin drawdown can still occur if macroeconomic conditions worsen. If the stock market crashes or interest rates spike, even BlackRock and Fidelity clients may sell to raise cash, proving that Bitcoin is not yet immune to gravity.

How Long Do These Corrections Last?

Speed is the defining factor of crypto crashes. Unlike the stock market, which bleeds out over months, a crypto correction is often violent and fast.

Historical data shows that a major pullback typically lasts between 30 to 60 days. This is the "max pain" period where sentiment shifts from greed to extreme fear. Smart investors view this window not as a disaster, but as a discount period to lower their average entry price.

How Should Investors React?

The worst thing you can do during a Bitcoin drawdown is trade emotionally. Selling your assets after they have already dropped 40% is how wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient.

The winning strategy is usually Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). By buying small amounts regularly during the dip, you remove the stress of trying to time the absolute bottom. History favors those who buy when there is blood in the streets.

Conclusion

Volatility is the price you pay for performance. A 50% Bitcoin drawdown is the admission fee for the potential of 100% gains.

Stablecoin Payment Flows Could Reach $56 Trillion by 2030, Bloomberg Predicts

Stablecoins are rapidly moving from the margins of crypto markets into the heart of global finance, and their growth trajectory shows no signs of slowing. According to new projections from Bloomberg Intelligence, payment flows powered by stablecoins could surge to nearly $56.6 trillion by 2030, positioning them as one of the most influential payment mechanisms worldwide.

Such a leap would represent a dramatic expansion from the estimated $2.9 trillion in stablecoin payment flows recorded in 2025. To reach Bloomberg’s forecast, the sector would need to sustain an eye-catching compound annual growth rate of roughly 81% over the next five years, a pace rarely seen in traditional financial systems.

Bloomberg analysts attribute this potential explosion to a combination of institutional adoption and growing demand from regions facing persistent inflation, currency devaluation, and economic uncertainty. In these environments, dollar-pegged stablecoins are increasingly viewed as a practical alternative to local currencies.

From Niche Crypto Tool to Global Payment Rail

Stablecoins are no longer limited to trading desks and crypto-native users. Instead, they are becoming everyday financial tools for cross-border payments, savings, and commercial settlements. Bloomberg Intelligence notes that this evolution could place stablecoins alongside, or even ahead of, legacy payment networks in certain markets.

Emerging economies play a particularly important role in this trend. As geopolitical tensions and monetary instability intensify, individuals and businesses alike are turning to US dollar-backed digital assets to preserve value and move money efficiently across borders.

USDT Leads Centralized Finance as USDC Gains Ground in DeFi

While the stablecoin ecosystem is expanding as a whole, competition between major issuers remains fierce. Bloomberg’s data highlights a clear division in usage patterns between the two dominant players: Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC.

USDT continues to be the preferred stablecoin for centralized finance, everyday payments, and business transactions, especially in developing regions. Its widespread availability and deep liquidity have made it a default choice for users seeking stability outside traditional banking systems.

USDC, however, has carved out a strong position within decentralized finance. On DeFi platforms, it remains the stablecoin of choice due to its regulatory posture and perceived transparency.

Despite a noticeable shift away from decentralized platforms in overall transaction share during 2025, USDC still recorded higher total transaction volume, reaching $18.3 trillion, compared with $13.3 trillion for USDT. Together, the two assets accounted for more than 95% of the $33 trillion in total stablecoin transaction volume, which itself marked a 72% year-on-year increase.

From a market capitalization standpoint, USDT maintains a commanding lead, with a valuation approaching $187 billion, while USDC stands at approximately $75 billion.

Market Size Expands as Governments and Institutions Step In

The broader stablecoin market is now valued at around $312 billion, and expectations for future growth are accelerating. The US Treasury previously estimated that the sector could expand to $2 trillion by 2028, a target that now appears increasingly plausible given recent developments.

Regulatory momentum is also building. Following the signing of the GENIUS Act by US President Donald Trump in July, countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom have intensified efforts to introduce comprehensive stablecoin frameworks, with implementation expected in 2026 or shortly thereafter. These moves signal a growing willingness among governments to formally integrate stablecoins into mainstream financial systems.

Traditional Payment Giants Embrace Stablecoins

Institutional adoption is advancing just as rapidly. Legacy financial and payment firms are no longer experimenting quietly; they are committing publicly. Western Union, one of the world’s largest remittance providers, is preparing to launch a stablecoin-based settlement system on the Solana blockchain in the first half of 2026.

At the same time, companies like MoneyGram and Zelle are developing their own stablecoin solutions, aiming to reduce costs and settlement times for international transfers. These initiatives reflect a broader realization that blockchain-based payments may offer efficiencies that traditional rails struggle to match.

A Defining Decade for Stablecoins

If Bloomberg’s projections hold true, the coming decade could redefine how money moves across borders. Stablecoins, once dismissed as a speculative crypto experiment, may soon underpin a significant share of global payment flows.

As regulation matures, institutional confidence grows, and adoption spreads in both developed and emerging economies, stablecoins appear increasingly positioned to become a foundational layer of the future financial system rather than a parallel alternative.

If you look at a basic price chart, you usually see two things: the price candles and the volume bars at the bottom. Most traders stop there. They look at the price to see where the asset is, and the volume to see how many people traded it.

But in the world of crypto derivatives (Futures and Perpetuals), there is a third metric that is arguably more important than volume: Open Interest (OI).

While volume tells you what has happened, Open Interest gives you a clue about what might happen next. It is the measure of potential energy in the market, waiting to be released.

The Core Difference Defined

To trade derivatives effectively, you must distinguish between these two concepts.

1. Trading Volume (The History)
Volume counts the total number of contracts traded during a specific period. If Alice buys 1 BTC contract and Bob sells 1 BTC contract, the volume is 1. Once the trade is finished, the volume is recorded and "gone." It represents realized activity.

2. Open Interest (The Potential)
Open Interest counts the total number of active contracts that are arguably still "open" in the market. It represents money that is currently in the game and has not yet been settled.

• If Alice opens a Long position and keeps it open overnight, OI increases.
• If Alice closes her position, OI decreases.

How to Combine Them for Signals

The magic happens when you analyze Price, Volume, and Open Interest together. This triad reveals the true intent of the market.

Scenario A: Price Rising + OI Rising (Bullish)
If the price is going up and Open Interest is also increasing, it means new money is entering the market to support the trend. Traders are opening fresh Long positions. This confirms a strong, healthy bull trend.

Scenario B: Price Rising + OI Falling (Weakness)
If the price is going up but Open Interest is dropping, be careful. This usually means the price rally is being driven by "Short Covering" (bears buying back to close their losing trades) rather than bulls buying to open new ones. This trend is weak and likely to reverse.

Scenario C: Price Falling + OI Rising (Bearish)
If the price is crashing but Open Interest is skyrocketing, it indicates that traders are aggressively opening new Short positions. They are betting heavily that the price will go lower. This confirms a strong bear trend.

The Danger Zone: High OI and Volatility

When Open Interest reaches historic highs, it acts like a powder keg. It means there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.

In this environment, a small price movement can trigger a Liquidation Cascade.

• Long Squeeze: If the price drops slightly, over-leveraged Longs are forced to sell. This selling drives the price down further, liquidating more Longs, creating a domino effect.
• Short Squeeze: Conversely, if the price pumps, Shorts are forced to buy, sending the price vertical.

Smart traders watch for spikes in OI to anticipate these violent moves before they happen.

Conclusion

Trading Volume shows you the intensity of the current battle. Open Interest shows you how many soldiers are still left on the battlefield.